249 runners priced · 6 clear gaps vs the market · tuning as today's results come in
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Market
How to read this
Every runner gets our own win probability, built from race data and settled against a margin-free read of the market. The board ranks by the gap between the two and shows the 95% interval on that gap. A bar whose whisker crosses the centre line is inside the noise — the model and the market are effectively saying the same thing.
No settled races scored yet today, so probabilities are shown uncorrected with a wider prior interval. Calibration kicks in automatically as results land.
Loading today's prices…
Value board summary
249 runners priced. 6 gaps beyond the noise. Showing 40 runners the model rates bigger than the market. Not yet calibrated on settled races.
1. Tuam Tempest, number 1, Bellewstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 11.8 percent versus fair market 3.3 percent, an edge of plus 8.5 points, 95 percent interval -3.0 to 20.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 15/2 against a live price of 40/1.
2. Headford Hero, number 1, Leopardstown 17:10. Verdict Lean back. Model 13.4 percent versus fair market 6.3 percent, an edge of plus 7.0 points, 95 percent interval -5.1 to 19.2 points, inside the noise. Fair price 13/2 against a live price of 16/1.
3. Spiddal Sprinter, number 2, Leopardstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 11.9 percent versus fair market 6.2 percent, an edge of plus 5.7 points, 95 percent interval -5.9 to 17.3 points, inside the noise. Fair price 15/2 against a live price of 16/1.
4. Loughrea Legend, number 1, Galway (Ballybrit) 14:50. Verdict No bet. Model 11.9 percent versus fair market 6.2 percent, an edge of plus 5.7 points, 95 percent interval -5.9 to 17.2 points, inside the noise. Fair price 15/2 against a live price of 15/2.
5. Furbo Flyer, number 2, Galway (Ballybrit) 18:20. Verdict Lean back. Model 9.0 percent versus fair market 3.4 percent, an edge of plus 5.6 points, 95 percent interval -4.6 to 15.9 points, inside the noise. Fair price 10/1 against a live price of 18/1.
6. Newcastle Noble, number 1, Leopardstown 18:20. Verdict No bet. Model 11.5 percent versus fair market 5.9 percent, an edge of plus 5.6 points, 95 percent interval -5.8 to 17.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 15/2 against a live price of 12/1.
7. Bushypark Bounty, number 6, Leopardstown 18:20. Verdict Lean back. Model 9.9 percent versus fair market 4.4 percent, an edge of plus 5.5 points, 95 percent interval -5.2 to 16.2 points, inside the noise. Fair price 9/1 against a live price of 18/1.
8. Loughrea Legend, number 1, Leopardstown 16:35. Verdict No bet. Model 7.6 percent versus fair market 2.1 percent, an edge of plus 5.4 points, 95 percent interval -4.0 to 14.9 points, inside the noise. Fair price 12/1 against a live price of 40/1.
9. Nimmo Nomad, number 5, Leopardstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 10.9 percent versus fair market 5.4 percent, an edge of plus 5.4 points, 95 percent interval -5.7 to 16.6 points, inside the noise. Fair price 8/1 against a live price of 18/1.
10. Errislannan, number 9, Leopardstown 14:50. Verdict No bet. Model 9.0 percent versus fair market 3.5 percent, an edge of plus 5.4 points, 95 percent interval -4.8 to 15.6 points, inside the noise. Fair price 10/1 against a live price of 25/1.
11. Errislannan, number 2, Galway (Ballybrit) 16:00. Verdict Lean back. Model 8.8 percent versus fair market 3.4 percent, an edge of plus 5.3 points, 95 percent interval -4.8 to 15.5 points, inside the noise. Fair price 10/1 against a live price of 18/1.
12. Cregmore Chancer, number 2, Bellewstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 14.6 percent versus fair market 9.5 percent, an edge of plus 5.2 points, 95 percent interval -7.5 to 17.8 points, inside the noise. Fair price 6/1 against a live price of 12/1.
13. Salthill Sunset, number 3, Galway (Ballybrit) 18:20. Verdict No bet. Model 7.8 percent versus fair market 2.6 percent, an edge of plus 5.1 points, 95 percent interval -4.4 to 14.7 points, inside the noise. Fair price 12/1 against a live price of 25/1.
14. Bearna Belle, number 1, Bellewstown 17:45. Verdict No bet. Model 8.5 percent versus fair market 3.4 percent, an edge of plus 5.0 points, 95 percent interval -4.9 to 15.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 22/1.
15. Kilcolgan Lad, number 6, Leopardstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 9.6 percent versus fair market 4.7 percent, an edge of plus 4.9 points, 95 percent interval -5.7 to 15.5 points, inside the noise. Fair price 9/1 against a live price of 22/1.
16. Clarinbridge Cash, number 6, Galway (Ballybrit) 14:50. Verdict No bet. Model 8.2 percent versus fair market 3.3 percent, an edge of plus 4.9 points, 95 percent interval -4.9 to 14.7 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 16/1.
17. Blazing Turlough, number 6, Leopardstown 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 8.8 percent versus fair market 3.9 percent, an edge of plus 4.8 points, 95 percent interval -5.3 to 15.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 10/1 against a live price of 18/1.
18. Shannon Gale, number 3, Galway (Ballybrit) 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 10.5 percent versus fair market 5.8 percent, an edge of plus 4.7 points, 95 percent interval -6.3 to 15.7 points, inside the noise. Fair price 17/2 against a live price of 17/2.
19. Clarinbridge Cash, number 6, Galway (Ballybrit) 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 6.3 percent versus fair market 1.6 percent, an edge of plus 4.7 points, 95 percent interval -4.0 to 13.4 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 40/1.
20. Terryland Tiger, number 4, Bellewstown 18:20. Verdict No bet. Model 11.5 percent versus fair market 6.8 percent, an edge of plus 4.7 points, 95 percent interval -6.7 to 16.1 points, inside the noise. Fair price 15/2 against a live price of 11/2.
21. Kinvara King, number 6, Bellewstown 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 8.4 percent versus fair market 3.8 percent, an edge of plus 4.6 points, 95 percent interval -5.3 to 14.6 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 33/1.
22. Ballydoyle Storm, number 7, Leopardstown 16:35. Verdict No bet. Model 8.6 percent versus fair market 4.0 percent, an edge of plus 4.6 points, 95 percent interval -5.4 to 14.7 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 20/1.
23. Clifden Chief, number 1, Bellewstown 14:50. Verdict No bet. Model 12.5 percent versus fair market 7.9 percent, an edge of plus 4.6 points, 95 percent interval -7.2 to 16.4 points, inside the noise. Fair price 7/1 against a live price of 5/1.
24. Boyne Valley Boy, number 4, Bellewstown 16:35. Verdict No bet. Model 10.2 percent versus fair market 5.7 percent, an edge of plus 4.5 points, 95 percent interval -6.3 to 15.4 points, inside the noise. Fair price 9/1 against a live price of 10/1.
25. Cashel Cavalier, number 3, Leopardstown 18:20. Verdict No bet. Model 6.8 percent versus fair market 2.2 percent, an edge of plus 4.5 points, 95 percent interval -4.5 to 13.5 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 33/1.
26. Claddagh Rose, number 1, Bellewstown 16:00. Verdict No bet. Model 10.9 percent versus fair market 6.5 percent, an edge of plus 4.4 points, 95 percent interval -6.8 to 15.5 points, inside the noise. Fair price 8/1 against a live price of 6/1.
27. Bushypark Bounty, number 3, Galway (Ballybrit) 17:10. Verdict No bet. Model 8.7 percent versus fair market 4.3 percent, an edge of plus 4.3 points, 95 percent interval -5.7 to 14.4 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 14/1.
28. Kingston Kestrel, number 4, Galway (Ballybrit) 17:45. Verdict No bet. Model 7.9 percent versus fair market 3.6 percent, an edge of plus 4.3 points, 95 percent interval -5.3 to 13.9 points, inside the noise. Fair price 12/1 against a live price of 20/1.
29. Oranmore Oscar, number 4, Bellewstown 15:25. Verdict No bet. Model 6.6 percent versus fair market 2.4 percent, an edge of plus 4.1 points, 95 percent interval -4.7 to 13.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 40/1.
30. Tír na nÓg, number 11, Leopardstown 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 6.6 percent versus fair market 2.5 percent, an edge of plus 4.1 points, 95 percent interval -4.8 to 13.0 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 28/1.
31. Knocknacarra Kid, number 4, Bellewstown 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 10.6 percent versus fair market 6.6 percent, an edge of plus 4.1 points, 95 percent interval -7.0 to 15.1 points, inside the noise. Fair price 17/2 against a live price of 16/1.
32. Shantalla Shadow, number 1, Leopardstown 15:25. Verdict No bet. Model 6.4 percent versus fair market 2.3 percent, an edge of plus 4.1 points, 95 percent interval -4.7 to 12.8 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 25/1.
33. Ard Na Sí, number 2, Bellewstown 17:45. Verdict No bet. Model 6.6 percent versus fair market 2.6 percent, an edge of plus 4.0 points, 95 percent interval -4.9 to 12.9 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 28/1.
34. Leenane Lightning, number 6, Bellewstown 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 6.5 percent versus fair market 2.5 percent, an edge of plus 4.0 points, 95 percent interval -4.9 to 12.8 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 40/1.
35. Portumna Pride, number 7, Galway (Ballybrit) 17:45. Verdict No bet. Model 7.7 percent versus fair market 3.8 percent, an edge of plus 3.9 points, 95 percent interval -5.6 to 13.5 points, inside the noise. Fair price 12/1 against a live price of 18/1.
36. Aran Islander, number 4, Leopardstown 16:35. Verdict No bet. Model 11.0 percent versus fair market 7.2 percent, an edge of plus 3.9 points, 95 percent interval -7.4 to 15.1 points, inside the noise. Fair price 8/1 against a live price of 11/1.
37. Roscam Rebel, number 8, Leopardstown 16:35. Verdict No bet. Model 6.9 percent versus fair market 3.0 percent, an edge of plus 3.8 points, 95 percent interval -5.2 to 12.9 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 28/1.
38. Lisdoonvarna Lass, number 2, Bellewstown 15:25. Verdict No bet. Model 7.8 percent versus fair market 4.0 percent, an edge of plus 3.8 points, 95 percent interval -5.8 to 13.4 points, inside the noise. Fair price 12/1 against a live price of 25/1.
39. Blackrock Bay, number 9, Bellewstown 18:55. Verdict No bet. Model 8.1 percent versus fair market 4.3 percent, an edge of plus 3.8 points, 95 percent interval -6.0 to 13.6 points, inside the noise. Fair price 11/1 against a live price of 25/1.
40. Ballybrit Bullet, number 7, Bellewstown 17:45. Verdict No bet. Model 6.6 percent versus fair market 2.8 percent, an edge of plus 3.8 points, 95 percent interval -5.1 to 12.7 points, inside the noise. Fair price 14/1 against a live price of 28/1.
1
Tuam Tempest
Michael O'Sullivan · Gavin Cromwell
Bellewstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+8.5 pts
win gap
95% -3.0 to +20.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.8%
15/2 · 8.48
about a 1 in 8.5 chance
Fair market
3.3%
40/1 · 39.90
Our price
15/2
unchanged · now
Market
40/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours15/2now
Board40/1now
We opened 9.3 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
36.0%
7/4 · 2.78
about a 1 in 2.8 chance
Fair market
12.9%
13/2 · 7.74
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 23.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 8.5 points.
Ratio
3.58×
raw 11.8%
Spread
0.0
±11.5 pts
No bet · 1.4σ
Model makes it 8.5 pts bigger than the market, but at 39.90 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 15/2 vs 40/1 · back EV +370.5% · lay EV -370.5%
1
Headford Hero
J. J. Slevin · Jessica Harrington
Leopardstown 17:10 · 8 runners
Lean back
+7.0 pts
win gap
95% -5.1 to +19.2
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
13.4%
13/2 · 7.49
about a 1 in 7.5 chance
Fair market
6.3%
16/1 · 16.60
Our price
13/2
unchanged · now
Market
16/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours13/2now
Board16/1now
We opened 7.3 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
40.7%
6/4 · 2.46
about a 1 in 2.5 chance
Opened40.1%· 6/4+0.6
Fair market
27.5%
11/4 · 3.64
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.2 points above the market, more than its win gap of 7.0 points.
Ratio
2.12×
raw 13.4%
Spread
0.0
±12.2 pts
Lean back · 1.1σ
Market is 7.0 pts too big — fair around 7.49 vs 16.60 on offer. Take the price; be wary of laying it in your own book.
Fair 13/2 vs 16/1 · back EV +121.6% · lay EV -121.6%
2
Spiddal Sprinter
Conor Orr · Emmet Mullins
Leopardstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+5.7 pts
win gap
95% -5.9 to +17.3
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.9%
15/2 · 8.40
about a 1 in 8.4 chance
Fair market
6.2%
16/1 · 16.90
Our price
15/2
unchanged · now
Market
16/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours15/2now
Board16/1now
We opened 6.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
36.6%
7/4 · 2.73
about a 1 in 2.7 chance
Fair market
27.0%
11/4 · 3.70
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 9.6 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.7 points.
Ratio
1.92×
raw 11.9%
Spread
0.0
±11.6 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model and market within 5.7 pts — price is about right.
Fair 15/2 vs 16/1 · back EV +101.2% · lay EV -101.2%
1
Loughrea Legend
Paul Townend · Denis Hogan
Galway (Ballybrit) 14:50 · 9 runners
No bet
+5.7 pts
win gap
95% -5.9 to +17.2
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.9%
15/2 · 8.41
about a 1 in 8.4 chance
Fair market
6.2%
15/2 · 8.60
Our price
15/2
unchanged · now
Market
15/2
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours15/2now
Board15/2now
Our price and the board have stayed together all day.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 9
TrackEdge
Model
36.2%
7/4 · 2.76
about a 1 in 2.8 chance
Fair market
20.0%
4/1 · 5.01
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 16.3 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.7 points.
Ratio
1.91×
raw 11.9%
Spread
0.0
±11.6 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model and market within 5.7 pts — price is about right.
Fair 15/2 vs 15/2 · back EV +2.2% · lay EV -2.2%
2
Furbo Flyer
Sam Ewing · John McConnell
Galway (Ballybrit) 18:20 · 10 runners
Lean back
+5.6 pts
win gap
95% -4.6 to +15.9
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
9.0%
10/1 · 11.07
about a 1 in 11 chance
Fair market
3.4%
18/1 · 19.00
Our price
10/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours10/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 3.8 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
27.6%
11/4 · 3.63
about a 1 in 3.6 chance
Opened29.4%· 12/5−1.8
Fair market
10.6%
17/2 · 9.44
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 17.0 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.6 points.
Ratio
2.64×
raw 9.0%
Spread
0.0
±10.3 pts
Lean back · 1.1σ
Market is 5.6 pts too big — fair around 11.07 vs 19.00 on offer. Take the price; be wary of laying it in your own book.
Fair 10/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +71.7% · lay EV -71.7%
1
Newcastle Noble
Paul Townend · Gavin Cromwell
Leopardstown 18:20 · 10 runners
No bet
+5.6 pts
win gap
95% -5.8 to +17.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.5%
15/2 · 8.70
about a 1 in 8.7 chance
Fair market
5.9%
12/1 · 13.90
Our price
15/2
unchanged · now
Market
12/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours15/2now
Board12/1now
We opened 4.3 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
34.7%
15/8 · 2.88
about a 1 in 2.9 chance
Opened36.3%· 7/4−1.6
Fair market
18.9%
9/2 · 5.28
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 15.8 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.6 points.
Ratio
1.95×
raw 11.5%
Spread
0.0
±11.4 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model and market within 5.6 pts — price is about right.
Fair 15/2 vs 12/1 · back EV +59.7% · lay EV -59.7%
6
Bushypark Bounty
Rachael Blackmore · Denis Hogan
Leopardstown 18:20 · 10 runners
Lean back
+5.5 pts
win gap
95% -5.2 to +16.2
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
9.9%
9/1 · 10.12
about a 1 in 10 chance
Fair market
4.4%
18/1 · 18.70
Our price
9/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours9/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 4.5 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
29.9%
12/5 · 3.34
about a 1 in 3.3 chance
Opened32.0%· 85/40−2.1
Fair market
13.8%
13/2 · 7.25
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 16.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.5 points.
Ratio
2.25×
raw 9.9%
Spread
0.0
±10.7 pts
Lean back · 1.0σ
Market is 5.5 pts too big — fair around 10.12 vs 18.70 on offer. Take the price; be wary of laying it in your own book.
Fair 9/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +84.8% · lay EV -84.8%
1
Loughrea Legend
Paul Townend · Peter Fahey
Leopardstown 16:35 · 10 runners
No bet
+5.4 pts
win gap
95% -4.0 to +14.9
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
7.6%
12/1 · 13.19
about a 1 in 13 chance
Fair market
2.1%
40/1 · 39.40
Our price
12/1
unchanged · now
Market
40/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours12/1now
Board40/1now
We opened 5.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
22.8%
100/30 · 4.39
about a 1 in 4.4 chance
Opened23.6%· 100/30−0.8
Fair market
7.0%
14/1 · 14.24
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 15.8 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.4 points.
Ratio
3.55×
raw 7.6%
Spread
0.0
±9.5 pts
No bet · 1.1σ
Model makes it 5.4 pts bigger than the market, but at 39.40 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 12/1 vs 40/1 · back EV +198.7% · lay EV -198.7%
5
Nimmo Nomad
Paul Townend · Denis Hogan
Leopardstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+5.4 pts
win gap
95% -5.7 to +16.6
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
10.9%
8/1 · 9.19
about a 1 in 9.2 chance
Fair market
5.4%
18/1 · 19.20
Our price
8/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours8/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 5.7 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
33.6%
2/1 · 2.98
about a 1 in 3 chance
Fair market
23.8%
100/30 · 4.20
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 9.8 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.4 points.
Ratio
2.00×
raw 10.9%
Spread
0.0
±11.1 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model and market within 5.4 pts — price is about right.
Fair 8/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +108.9% · lay EV -108.9%
9
Errislannan
Mark Walsh · Gordon Elliott
Leopardstown 14:50 · 9 runners
No bet
+5.4 pts
win gap
95% -4.8 to +15.6
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
9.0%
10/1 · 11.16
about a 1 in 11 chance
Fair market
3.5%
25/1 · 25.00
Our price
10/1
unchanged · now
Market
25/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours10/1now
Board25/1now
We opened 5.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 9
TrackEdge
Model
27.5%
11/4 · 3.64
about a 1 in 3.6 chance
Opened28.2%· 5/2−0.7
Fair market
11.6%
15/2 · 8.63
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 15.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.4 points.
Ratio
2.53×
raw 9.0%
Spread
0.0
±10.2 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model makes it 5.4 pts bigger than the market, but at 25.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 10/1 vs 25/1 · back EV +124.1% · lay EV -124.1%
2
Errislannan
J. J. Slevin · Emmet Mullins
Galway (Ballybrit) 16:00 · 11 runners
Lean back
+5.3 pts
win gap
95% -4.8 to +15.5
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.8%
10/1 · 11.41
about a 1 in 11 chance
Fair market
3.4%
18/1 · 18.70
Our price
10/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours10/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 3.4 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
26.5%
11/4 · 3.77
about a 1 in 3.8 chance
Opened27.5%· 11/4−1.0
Fair market
9.8%
9/1 · 10.23
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 16.7 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.3 points.
Ratio
2.56×
raw 8.8%
Spread
0.0
±10.1 pts
Lean back · 1.0σ
Market is 5.3 pts too big — fair around 11.41 vs 18.70 on offer. Take the price; be wary of laying it in your own book.
Fair 10/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +63.9% · lay EV -63.9%
2
Cregmore Chancer
Paul Townend · Martin Brassil
Bellewstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+5.2 pts
win gap
95% -7.5 to +17.8
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
14.6%
6/1 · 6.85
about a 1 in 6.8 chance
Fair market
9.5%
12/1 · 13.90
Our price
6/1
unchanged · now
Market
12/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours6/1now
Board12/1now
We opened 7.4 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
43.9%
5/4 · 2.28
about a 1 in 2.3 chance
Opened43.2%· 11/8+0.7
Fair market
37.2%
7/4 · 2.69
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 6.7 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.2 points.
Ratio
1.55×
raw 14.6%
Spread
0.0
±12.6 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model and market within 5.2 pts — price is about right.
Fair 6/1 vs 12/1 · back EV +103.0% · lay EV -103.0%
3
Salthill Sunset
Keith Donoghue · Emmet Mullins
Galway (Ballybrit) 18:20 · 10 runners
No bet
+5.1 pts
win gap
95% -4.4 to +14.7
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
7.8%
12/1 · 12.89
about a 1 in 13 chance
Fair market
2.6%
25/1 · 24.80
Our price
12/1
unchanged · now
Market
25/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours12/1now
Board25/1now
We opened 3.7 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
23.6%
100/30 · 4.24
about a 1 in 4.2 chance
Opened25.0%· 3/1−1.4
Fair market
7.9%
12/1 · 12.67
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 15.7 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.1 points.
Ratio
2.96×
raw 7.8%
Spread
0.0
±9.6 pts
No bet · 1.1σ
Model makes it 5.1 pts bigger than the market, but at 24.80 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 12/1 vs 25/1 · back EV +92.3% · lay EV -92.3%
1
Bearna Belle
Rachael Blackmore · Tony Martin
Bellewstown 17:45 · 12 runners
No bet
+5.0 pts
win gap
95% -4.9 to +15.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.5%
11/1 · 11.81
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
3.4%
22/1 · 22.70
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
22/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board22/1now
We opened 4.1 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
25.7%
3/1 · 3.89
about a 1 in 3.9 chance
Opened26.5%· 11/4−0.8
Fair market
11.1%
8/1 · 9.03
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 14.6 points above the market, more than its win gap of 5.0 points.
Ratio
2.47×
raw 8.5%
Spread
0.0
±10.0 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model makes it 5.0 pts bigger than the market, but at 22.70 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 22/1 · back EV +92.1% · lay EV -92.1%
6
Kilcolgan Lad
J. J. Slevin · Peter Fahey
Leopardstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+4.9 pts
win gap
95% -5.7 to +15.5
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
9.6%
9/1 · 10.38
about a 1 in 10 chance
Fair market
4.7%
22/1 · 22.10
Our price
9/1
unchanged · now
Market
22/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours9/1now
Board22/1now
We opened 5.1 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
29.8%
12/5 · 3.35
about a 1 in 3.4 chance
Opened30.4%· 9/4−0.6
Fair market
20.6%
4/1 · 4.84
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 9.2 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.9 points.
Ratio
2.03×
raw 9.6%
Spread
0.0
±10.6 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.9 pts bigger than the market, but at 22.10 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 9/1 vs 22/1 · back EV +112.8% · lay EV -112.8%
6
Clarinbridge Cash
Conor Orr · Paul Nolan
Galway (Ballybrit) 14:50 · 9 runners
No bet
+4.9 pts
win gap
95% -4.9 to +14.7
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.2%
11/1 · 12.25
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
3.3%
16/1 · 16.30
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
16/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board16/1now
We opened 2.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 9
TrackEdge
Model
25.0%
3/1 · 4.00
about a 1 in 4 chance
Opened25.5%· 3/1−0.5
Fair market
10.1%
9/1 · 9.91
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 14.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.9 points.
Ratio
2.48×
raw 8.2%
Spread
0.0
±9.8 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model makes it 4.9 pts bigger than the market, but at 16.30 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 16/1 · back EV +33.0% · lay EV -33.0%
6
Blazing Turlough
Danny Mullins · W. P. Mullins
Leopardstown 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.8 pts
win gap
95% -5.3 to +15.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.8%
10/1 · 11.40
about a 1 in 11 chance
Fair market
3.9%
18/1 · 19.70
Our price
10/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours10/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 3.7 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
26.5%
11/4 · 3.77
about a 1 in 3.8 chance
Opened27.6%· 11/4−1.1
Fair market
12.6%
7/1 · 7.93
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.8 points.
Ratio
2.23×
raw 8.8%
Spread
0.0
±10.1 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.8 pts bigger than the market, but at 19.70 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 10/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +72.8% · lay EV -72.8%
3
Shannon Gale
Simon Torrens · Gordon Elliott
Galway (Ballybrit) 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.7 pts
win gap
95% -6.3 to +15.7
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
10.5%
17/2 · 9.50
about a 1 in 9.5 chance
Fair market
5.8%
17/2 · 9.40
Our price
17/2
unchanged · now
Market
17/2
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours17/2now
Board17/2now
Our price and the board have stayed together all day.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
32.4%
85/40 · 3.09
about a 1 in 3.1 chance
Fair market
18.5%
9/2 · 5.40
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.7 points.
Ratio
1.81×
raw 10.5%
Spread
0.0
±11.0 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 4.7 pts bigger than the market, but at 9.40 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 17/2 vs 17/2 · back EV -1.1% · lay EV +1.1%
6
Clarinbridge Cash
Sam Ewing · Noel Meade
Galway (Ballybrit) 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+4.7 pts
win gap
95% -4.0 to +13.4
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.3%
14/1 · 15.85
about a 1 in 16 chance
Fair market
1.6%
40/1 · 40.00
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
40/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board40/1now
We opened 3.8 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
20.1%
4/1 · 4.99
about a 1 in 5 chance
Opened19.2%· 4/1+0.9
Fair market
5.6%
16/1 · 17.80
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 14.4 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.7 points.
Ratio
3.90×
raw 6.3%
Spread
0.0
±8.7 pts
No bet · 1.1σ
Model makes it 4.7 pts bigger than the market, but at 40.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 40/1 · back EV +152.4% · lay EV -152.4%
4
Terryland Tiger
Paul Townend · Paul Nolan
Bellewstown 18:20 · 10 runners
No bet
+4.7 pts
win gap
95% -6.7 to +16.1
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.5%
15/2 · 8.69
about a 1 in 8.7 chance
Fair market
6.8%
11/2 · 6.60
Our price
15/2
unchanged · now
Market
11/2
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours15/2now
Board11/2now
We opened 3.6 pts bigger than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
35.1%
15/8 · 2.85
about a 1 in 2.8 chance
Opened36.3%· 7/4−1.2
Fair market
21.9%
7/2 · 4.56
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.2 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.7 points.
Ratio
1.69×
raw 11.5%
Spread
0.0
±11.4 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model and market within 4.7 pts — price is about right.
Fair 15/2 vs 11/2 · back EV -24.1% · lay EV +24.1%
6
Kinvara King
J. J. Slevin · Gordon Elliott
Bellewstown 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+4.6 pts
win gap
95% -5.3 to +14.6
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.4%
11/1 · 11.91
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
3.8%
33/1 · 35.00
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
33/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board33/1now
We opened 5.5 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
25.9%
11/4 · 3.87
about a 1 in 3.9 chance
Fair market
14.8%
11/2 · 6.74
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.0 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.6 points.
Ratio
2.24×
raw 8.4%
Spread
0.0
±9.9 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.6 pts bigger than the market, but at 35.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 33/1 · back EV +193.8% · lay EV -193.8%
7
Ballydoyle Storm
J. J. Slevin · Paul Nolan
Leopardstown 16:35 · 10 runners
No bet
+4.6 pts
win gap
95% -5.4 to +14.7
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.6%
11/1 · 11.58
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
4.0%
20/1 · 21.00
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
20/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board20/1now
We opened 3.9 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
26.1%
11/4 · 3.83
about a 1 in 3.8 chance
Opened27.1%· 11/4−1.0
Fair market
14.0%
6/1 · 7.14
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 12.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.6 points.
Ratio
2.16×
raw 8.6%
Spread
0.0
±10.1 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.6 pts bigger than the market, but at 21.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 20/1 · back EV +81.4% · lay EV -81.4%
1
Clifden Chief
Jack Kennedy · Paul Nolan
Bellewstown 14:50 · 9 runners
No bet
+4.6 pts
win gap
95% -7.2 to +16.4
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
12.5%
7/1 · 8.01
about a 1 in 8 chance
Fair market
7.9%
5/1 · 6.10
Our price
7/1
unchanged · now
Market
5/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours7/1now
Board5/1now
We opened 3.9 pts bigger than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 9
TrackEdge
Model
38.2%
13/8 · 2.61
about a 1 in 2.6 chance
Fair market
25.3%
3/1 · 3.96
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.0 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.6 points.
Ratio
1.58×
raw 12.5%
Spread
0.0
±11.8 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model and market within 4.6 pts — price is about right.
Fair 7/1 vs 5/1 · back EV -23.8% · lay EV +23.8%
4
Boyne Valley Boy
Michael O'Sullivan · Henry de Bromhead
Bellewstown 16:35 · 10 runners
No bet
+4.5 pts
win gap
95% -6.3 to +15.4
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
10.2%
9/1 · 9.80
about a 1 in 9.8 chance
Fair market
5.7%
10/1 · 11.00
Our price
9/1
unchanged · now
Market
10/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours9/1now
Board10/1now
Our price and the board have stayed together all day.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
31.2%
9/4 · 3.20
about a 1 in 3.2 chance
Opened32.0%· 85/40−0.8
Fair market
19.1%
4/1 · 5.24
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 12.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.5 points.
Ratio
1.80×
raw 10.2%
Spread
0.0
±10.8 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 4.5 pts bigger than the market, but at 11.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 9/1 vs 10/1 · back EV +12.2% · lay EV -12.2%
3
Cashel Cavalier
Mark Walsh · Noel Meade
Leopardstown 18:20 · 10 runners
No bet
+4.5 pts
win gap
95% -4.5 to +13.5
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.8%
14/1 · 14.79
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.2%
33/1 · 36.50
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
33/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board33/1now
We opened 4.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
20.2%
4/1 · 4.94
about a 1 in 4.9 chance
Opened21.5%· 7/2−1.3
Fair market
6.6%
14/1 · 15.13
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.6 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.5 points.
Ratio
3.01×
raw 6.8%
Spread
0.0
±9.0 pts
No bet · 1.0σ
Model makes it 4.5 pts bigger than the market, but at 36.50 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 33/1 · back EV +146.8% · lay EV -146.8%
1
Claddagh Rose
Phillip Enright · Peter Fahey
Bellewstown 16:00 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.4 pts
win gap
95% -6.8 to +15.5
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
10.9%
8/1 · 9.20
about a 1 in 9.2 chance
Fair market
6.5%
6/1 · 7.20
Our price
8/1
unchanged · now
Market
6/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours8/1now
Board6/1now
We opened 3.0 pts bigger than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
33.2%
2/1 · 3.01
about a 1 in 3 chance
Opened33.8%· 2/1−0.6
Fair market
20.1%
4/1 · 4.97
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.4 points.
Ratio
1.67×
raw 10.9%
Spread
0.0
±11.1 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model and market within 4.4 pts — price is about right.
Fair 8/1 vs 6/1 · back EV -21.8% · lay EV +21.8%
3
Bushypark Bounty
Michael O'Sullivan · Denis Hogan
Galway (Ballybrit) 17:10 · 8 runners
No bet
+4.3 pts
win gap
95% -5.7 to +14.4
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.7%
11/1 · 11.51
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
4.3%
14/1 · 14.90
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
14/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board14/1now
We opened 2.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 8
TrackEdge
Model
27.7%
5/2 · 3.61
about a 1 in 3.6 chance
Fair market
16.2%
5/1 · 6.17
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.5 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.3 points.
Ratio
2.00×
raw 8.7%
Spread
0.0
±10.1 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 4.3 pts bigger than the market, but at 14.90 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 14/1 · back EV +29.4% · lay EV -29.4%
4
Kingston Kestrel
Keith Donoghue · Noel Meade
Galway (Ballybrit) 17:45 · 12 runners
No bet
+4.3 pts
win gap
95% -5.3 to +13.9
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
7.9%
12/1 · 12.68
about a 1 in 13 chance
Fair market
3.6%
20/1 · 20.10
Our price
12/1
unchanged · now
Market
20/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours12/1now
Board20/1now
We opened 2.9 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
23.7%
100/30 · 4.21
about a 1 in 4.2 chance
Opened24.6%· 3/1−0.9
Fair market
10.6%
17/2 · 9.40
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 13.1 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.3 points.
Ratio
2.20×
raw 7.9%
Spread
0.0
±9.6 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.3 pts bigger than the market, but at 20.10 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 12/1 vs 20/1 · back EV +58.6% · lay EV -58.6%
4
Oranmore Oscar
Jack Kennedy · Denis Hogan
Bellewstown 15:25 · 12 runners
No bet
+4.1 pts
win gap
95% -4.7 to +13.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.6%
14/1 · 15.23
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.4%
40/1 · 41.30
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
40/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board40/1now
We opened 4.1 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
19.4%
4/1 · 5.15
about a 1 in 5.1 chance
Opened20.8%· 4/1−1.4
Fair market
6.6%
14/1 · 15.21
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 12.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.1 points.
Ratio
2.71×
raw 6.6%
Spread
0.0
±8.9 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.1 pts bigger than the market, but at 41.30 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 40/1 · back EV +171.1% · lay EV -171.1%
11
Tír na nÓg
Rachael Blackmore · Martin Brassil
Leopardstown 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.1 pts
win gap
95% -4.8 to +13.0
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.6%
14/1 · 15.17
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.5%
28/1 · 31.10
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
28/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board28/1now
We opened 3.4 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
19.6%
4/1 · 5.10
about a 1 in 5.1 chance
Opened20.2%· 4/1−0.5
Fair market
7.6%
12/1 · 13.17
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 12.0 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.1 points.
Ratio
2.64×
raw 6.6%
Spread
0.0
±8.9 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.1 pts bigger than the market, but at 31.10 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 28/1 · back EV +105.0% · lay EV -105.0%
4
Knocknacarra Kid
Jack Kennedy · Martin Brassil
Bellewstown 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.1 pts
win gap
95% -7.0 to +15.1
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
10.6%
17/2 · 9.41
about a 1 in 9.4 chance
Fair market
6.6%
16/1 · 16.30
Our price
17/2
unchanged · now
Market
16/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours17/2now
Board16/1now
We opened 4.5 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
32.2%
85/40 · 3.10
about a 1 in 3.1 chance
Opened33.1%· 2/1−0.9
Fair market
21.8%
7/2 · 4.58
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 10.4 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.1 points.
Ratio
1.62×
raw 10.6%
Spread
0.0
±11.0 pts
No bet · 0.7σ
Model makes it 4.1 pts bigger than the market, but at 16.30 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 17/2 vs 16/1 · back EV +73.2% · lay EV -73.2%
1
Shantalla Shadow
Michael O'Sullivan · Denis Hogan
Leopardstown 15:25 · 12 runners
No bet
+4.1 pts
win gap
95% -4.7 to +12.8
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.4%
14/1 · 15.62
about a 1 in 16 chance
Fair market
2.3%
25/1 · 27.00
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
25/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board25/1now
We opened 2.7 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
19.2%
4/1 · 5.21
about a 1 in 5.2 chance
Opened20.2%· 4/1−1.0
Fair market
7.0%
14/1 · 14.22
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 12.2 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.1 points.
Ratio
2.73×
raw 6.4%
Spread
0.0
±8.8 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.1 pts bigger than the market, but at 27.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 25/1 · back EV +72.8% · lay EV -72.8%
2
Ard Na Sí
Darragh O'Keeffe · John McConnell
Bellewstown 17:45 · 12 runners
No bet
+4.0 pts
win gap
95% -4.9 to +12.9
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.6%
14/1 · 15.15
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.6%
28/1 · 30.10
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
28/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board28/1now
We opened 3.3 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
19.7%
4/1 · 5.07
about a 1 in 5.1 chance
Fair market
8.1%
11/1 · 12.40
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.7 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.0 points.
Ratio
2.56×
raw 6.6%
Spread
0.0
±8.9 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.0 pts bigger than the market, but at 30.10 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 28/1 · back EV +98.7% · lay EV -98.7%
6
Leenane Lightning
Conor Orr · Jessica Harrington
Bellewstown 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+4.0 pts
win gap
95% -4.9 to +12.8
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.5%
14/1 · 15.35
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.5%
40/1 · 42.00
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
40/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board40/1now
We opened 4.1 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
19.4%
4/1 · 5.16
about a 1 in 5.2 chance
Opened19.9%· 4/1−0.5
Fair market
7.8%
12/1 · 12.88
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.6 points above the market, more than its win gap of 4.0 points.
Ratio
2.56×
raw 6.5%
Spread
0.0
±8.8 pts
No bet · 0.9σ
Model makes it 4.0 pts bigger than the market, but at 42.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 40/1 · back EV +173.6% · lay EV -173.6%
7
Portumna Pride
Darragh O'Keeffe · Gavin Cromwell
Galway (Ballybrit) 17:45 · 12 runners
No bet
+3.9 pts
win gap
95% -5.6 to +13.5
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
7.7%
12/1 · 12.94
about a 1 in 13 chance
Fair market
3.8%
18/1 · 19.00
Our price
12/1
unchanged · now
Market
18/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours12/1now
Board18/1now
We opened 2.5 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
23.2%
100/30 · 4.30
about a 1 in 4.3 chance
Opened24.1%· 3/1−0.8
Fair market
11.3%
8/1 · 8.83
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.9 points.
Ratio
2.04×
raw 7.7%
Spread
0.0
±9.6 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 3.9 pts bigger than the market, but at 19.00 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 12/1 vs 18/1 · back EV +46.9% · lay EV -46.9%
4
Aran Islander
Rachael Blackmore · John McConnell
Leopardstown 16:35 · 10 runners
No bet
+3.9 pts
win gap
95% -7.4 to +15.1
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
11.0%
8/1 · 9.06
about a 1 in 9.1 chance
Fair market
7.2%
11/1 · 11.70
Our price
8/1
unchanged · now
Market
11/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours8/1now
Board11/1now
We opened 2.5 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
33.4%
2/1 · 2.99
about a 1 in 3 chance
Opened34.2%· 15/8−0.8
Fair market
25.9%
11/4 · 3.86
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 7.5 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.9 points.
Ratio
1.54×
raw 11.0%
Spread
0.0
±11.2 pts
No bet · 0.7σ
Model makes it 3.9 pts bigger than the market, but at 11.70 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 8/1 vs 11/1 · back EV +29.2% · lay EV -29.2%
8
Roscam Rebel
Michael O'Sullivan · Gavin Cromwell
Leopardstown 16:35 · 10 runners
No bet
+3.8 pts
win gap
95% -5.2 to +12.9
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.9%
14/1 · 14.54
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
3.0%
28/1 · 27.70
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
28/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board28/1now
We opened 3.3 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 10
TrackEdge
Model
20.6%
4/1 · 4.86
about a 1 in 4.9 chance
Opened21.2%· 7/2−0.6
Fair market
10.4%
17/2 · 9.65
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 10.2 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.8 points.
Ratio
2.27×
raw 6.9%
Spread
0.0
±9.1 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 3.8 pts bigger than the market, but at 27.70 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 28/1 · back EV +90.5% · lay EV -90.5%
2
Lisdoonvarna Lass
Conor Orr · Paul Nolan
Bellewstown 15:25 · 12 runners
No bet
+3.8 pts
win gap
95% -5.8 to +13.4
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
7.8%
12/1 · 12.75
about a 1 in 13 chance
Fair market
4.0%
25/1 · 24.90
Our price
12/1
unchanged · now
Market
25/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours12/1now
Board25/1now
We opened 3.8 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
23.5%
100/30 · 4.25
about a 1 in 4.3 chance
Opened25.3%· 3/1−1.8
Fair market
11.6%
15/2 · 8.59
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 11.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.8 points.
Ratio
1.95×
raw 7.8%
Spread
0.0
±9.6 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 3.8 pts bigger than the market, but at 24.90 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 12/1 vs 25/1 · back EV +95.3% · lay EV -95.3%
9
Blackrock Bay
Sean Flanagan · Henry de Bromhead
Bellewstown 18:55 · 11 runners
No bet
+3.8 pts
win gap
95% -6.0 to +13.6
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
8.1%
11/1 · 12.36
about a 1 in 12 chance
Fair market
4.3%
25/1 · 24.90
Our price
11/1
unchanged · now
Market
25/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours11/1now
Board25/1now
We opened 4.1 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 11
TrackEdge
Model
24.4%
3/1 · 4.10
about a 1 in 4.1 chance
Opened25.3%· 3/1−0.9
Fair market
13.9%
6/1 · 7.22
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 10.5 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.8 points.
Ratio
1.88×
raw 8.1%
Spread
0.0
±9.8 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 3.8 pts bigger than the market, but at 24.90 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 11/1 vs 25/1 · back EV +101.5% · lay EV -101.5%
7
Ballybrit Bullet
Paul Townend · Henry de Bromhead
Bellewstown 17:45 · 12 runners
No bet
+3.8 pts
win gap
95% -5.1 to +12.7
inside noise
To win
TrackEdge
Model
6.6%
14/1 · 15.13
about a 1 in 15 chance
Fair market
2.8%
28/1 · 27.60
Our price
14/1
unchanged · now
Market
28/1
unchanged · now
Through the day
bigger price ← → shorter
Ours14/1now
Board28/1now
We opened 3.0 pts shorter than the board and it has not moved yet.
Our price locks 90 min before the off.
To place · first 3 of 12
TrackEdge
Model
19.8%
4/1 · 5.06
about a 1 in 5.1 chance
Fair market
8.9%
10/1 · 11.24
from the win market
Better as a place bet: the model rates its chance of finishing in the first 3 10.9 points above the market, more than its win gap of 3.8 points.
Ratio
2.35×
raw 6.6%
Spread
0.0
±8.9 pts
No bet · 0.8σ
Model makes it 3.8 pts bigger than the market, but at 27.60 that gap is inside the model's own error. Backs this big only paid when the edge was 5+ pts.
Fair 14/1 vs 28/1 · back EV +82.4% · lay EV -82.4%